Risk Assessment: Calculating What You Can't Prevent

"Nothing is true. Everything is permitted. Some things are probable."

🎲 The Problem: Everything Is Risky

Risk is what's left after you've done everything you can. Perfect security doesn't exist. Zero risk is impossible. Anyone promising zero risk is selling snake oil or ignorance—possibly both.

Risk assessment is honest accounting: What can go wrong? How likely? How bad? What are we doing about it? Did it work?

ILLUMINATION: Risk is what's left after you've done everything you can. Accepting it is maturity. Ignoring it is negligence. Choose wisely.

🧮 The Formula: Risk = Likelihood × Impact

Likelihood: How often will this happen?
Impact: How bad is it when it does?
Risk: Multiply them together.

High likelihood + low impact = annoying.
Low likelihood + high impact = catastrophic.
High likelihood + high impact = fix immediately.

CHAOS ILLUMINATION: A 1% chance of losing everything is more dangerous than a 99% chance of losing nothing. Do the math. Then do the mitigation.

🎯 The Five Risk Treatment Options

1. Avoid

Don't do the risky thing.

Stop using the vulnerable software. Don't store credit cards. Don't connect the nuclear reactor to the internet. Avoidance is absolute.

2. Mitigate

Reduce likelihood or impact.

Patch vulnerabilities (reduce likelihood). Backup data (reduce impact). Most security work is mitigation.

3. Transfer

Make it someone else's problem.

Insurance, outsourcing, contracts. Transfer doesn't eliminate risk—it shifts who pays when things break.

4. Accept

Acknowledge and document.

Some risks aren't worth fixing. Document the decision. Get executive signoff. Accept knowingly, not accidentally.

5. Ignore

Pretend it doesn't exist.

This is not a valid option. But many organizations choose it anyway. Then wonder why they got breached.

ILLUMINATION: Accepting risk consciously is strategy. Accepting risk unconsciously is negligence. Document your choices or they choose for you.

📊 The Risk Matrix: Visual Lies

Risk matrices are popular because they're visual. They're also misleading because they're oversimplified.

The Standard 5×5 Matrix:
Likelihood: Rare, Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Almost Certain
Impact: Insignificant, Minor, Moderate, Major, Catastrophic
Risk Level: Low, Medium, High, Critical

Looks authoritative. Actually subjective. "Possible" to one person is "Likely" to another. "Major impact" depends on who you ask.

Use risk matrices for communication, not precision. Actual risk requires actual numbers—probability distributions, cost estimates, and math that makes executives uncomfortable.

🔄 The Risk Assessment Cycle

Identify - What assets? What threats? What vulnerabilities?
Analyze - Likelihood? Impact? Risk level?
Evaluate - Above risk appetite? Requires treatment?
Treat - Avoid, mitigate, transfer, or accept?
Monitor - Did it work? Did risks change?

Risk assessment isn't annual theater—it's continuous process. New threats emerge. Old controls fail. Reassess quarterly or when significant changes occur.

📋 What Hack23 Actually Does

Our risk assessment methodology is public (of course): ISMS-PUBLIC Repository | Risk Assessment Methodology

Asset inventory - Can't assess risk to assets you don't know exist
Threat modeling - Who wants to attack? Why? How?
Vulnerability assessment - What's exploitable?
Risk calculation - Likelihood × Impact with actual numbers
Treatment plans - Documented decisions with executive approval
Quarterly reviews - Risks change, assessments follow

META-ILLUMINATION: Risk assessment without action is expensive documentation. Assessment → Treatment → Monitoring → Reassessment. The cycle never ends.

🎯 Conclusion: Accept or Act

You can't eliminate all risk. You can't prevent all attacks. You can't afford perfect security—nobody can.

Risk assessment is honest accounting. What can go wrong? How likely? How bad? What are we doing? Is it working?

Identify, analyze, evaluate, treat, monitor. Accept risk knowingly or mitigate it effectively. But don't ignore it and pretend it doesn't exist.

That's not risk management. That's negligence with extra steps.

All hail Eris! All hail Discordia!
"Think for yourself, schmuck! Question everything—especially risk assessments that show 'all risks are low' when you know that's statistically impossible."
🍎 23 FNORD 5
— Hagbard Celine, Captain of the Leif Erikson

P.S. You are now in Chapel Perilous. Risk is both calculable and unknowable. Both are true. Nothing is true. Everything is permitted—but some things are expensive.